Why Tail Correlation Matters

Assets become more correlated during market stress, making diversification fail when you need it most.

Approaches

Copula Models

Capture non-linear dependence structure beyond correlation.

Regime-Switching

Different correlation matrices for calm vs stressed regimes.

Stress Testing

Scenario analysis for extreme moves.

Implementation

Use adaptive covariance scaling that increases in high-volatility regimes:

\[\Sigma_{scaled} = \Sigma_{base} \times \left(\frac{\sigma_{recent}}{\sigma_{longterm}}\right)^2\]

See Adaptive Scaling for full implementation.